Likelihood of migratory connectivity among tropical non-breeding and temperate breeding areas for American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Predicted breeding range distribution differs for birds overwintering in A) Mexico; B) Bahamas, Florida, and Cuba; C) Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico; and D) Dominica and St. Martin. Black points in the inset show non-breeding locations where birds were sampled. Stars indicate Dept. of Defense installations.