Likelihood of migratory connectivity among tropical non-breeding and temperate breeding areas for Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). Predicted breeding range distribution differs for birds overwintering in A) Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Florida, Jamaica, and Mexico; B) Nicaragua; C) Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and St. Martin. The approximate non-breeding range is shaded grey. Black points in the inset show non-breeding locations where birds were sampled. Stars indicate Dept. of Defense installations.