Likelihood of migratory connectivity among tropical non-breeding and temperate breeding areas for Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia). Predicted breeding range distribution differs for birds overwintering in A) Mexico, Belize, Nicaragua; B) Bahamas, Florida, and Cuba; C) Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and St. Martin. Black points in the inset show non-breeding locations where birds were sampled. Stars indicate Dept. of Defense installations.